Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for the close on Friday

04/07/00

Available Mon-Thurs after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific and after

12:00 noon Eastern on Sunday. www.toddmarketforecast.com

DOW - 3 on 116 Net Advances

NASDAQ COMP. + 179 on 1300 Net Advances

BOTTOM LINE

Our intermediate term system is on a buy signal since the close of Oct.

6.

There are some rather interesting things going on and most are

positive for the stock market. Crude oil has surprisingly dropped over

20% during the past four plus weeks. Bonds have been in an uptrend since

mid January and made another rally high on Friday. The stock market

likes lower interest rates in spite of what you may have heard recently.

The advance decline line for the NYSE made a new rally high on Friday

from its low on March 14. The S&P 500 and the New York Composite index,

on the other hand, did not. It’s been a long time since breadth

outperformed stocks.

The stock market got some “bad news” on Friday when it was disclosed

that more people than expected had jobs. But, in spite of this, both

bonds and stocks, for the most part, rallied. It’s a positive sign when

the financial markets can shrug off “negatives”

We also liked the fact that the cover of Barron’s has a bear

mistreating a bull on the cover. Inside that publication, the

perennially wrong Alan Abelson was again negative on the market. This

is a very good sign going forward.

That said, there are some short term negatives. The NASDAQ had one

of its busiest sessions on Tuesday when it was down, but the bounce back

has been on very light volume. In addition, the put call ratio was very

low on Friday. All of this may mean a partial retest of the recent lows,

but even that is by no means certain.

In our opinion, the weight of the evidence favors the bulls by a wide

margin, especially on a more intermediate term basis.

SPDR traders are long the technology SPDR, symbol XLK at 60. Hold

without a stop.

Short term fund switchers are long the Rydex OTC fund from 92.40. Hold

for now.

Stock traders are long Citgroup from 60 13/16, Safeway from 39, Freddie

Mack from 52 ¼, and a double position in Oracle from 29 3/4. Remain

there.

Intermediate term fund switchers are invested 100% in equity mutual

funds from the close on October 7.

OTHER MARKETS

Bonds rallied again. We remain in the bullish camp.

We are currently positive for the U.S. dollar. The Canadian dollar looks

to be bearish.

We’ll remain in the bearish camp for gold and the precious metals

complex.

We remain positive on European, Canadian and Asian stock markets for the

longer term.

S&P 500 RSI 5 DAY = 67

NASDAQ RSI 5 DAY = 63

McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR = + 102

TRADING INDEX (ARMS) = .95

COMPOSITE GAUGE = 7

COMPOSITE GAUGE FIVE DAY M.A. = 8.6

NOVA URSA SWITCH FUND RATIO FOR Thursday = 2.76

CBOE PUT CALL RATIO = .38

VOLATILITY INDEX VIX = 26.94

SUPPLY DEMAND GAUGE 5 DAY M.A. = .67

Indicator parameters:

RSI 30 or below is oversold. 70 or

above is overbought

McClellan Oscillator minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is

overbought

Trading Index 1.00 or above is oversold. .70 or

below is overbought

Composite Gauge m.a. 8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is

oversold

Nova Ursa ratio 1.00 or below is bullish 3.0 or above is

a negative.

CBOE Put Call Ratio below .60 is a negative. above .80 is a

positive

Supply Demand m.a. .45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is

a negative

Volatility Index VIX low 20s bearish, high twenties bullish